2008年11月6日

抓猴子


金融風暴股市動盪造成股民人心惶惶,許多人回頭尋找古老的智慧,希望能夠解釋這種混亂的根源,於是在網路上出現了關於「猴市」的古老比喻,這幾乎是所有美國商學院學生都聽過的比喻。對了,故事的發生還是「很久很久以前」,表示古老的教訓永遠被遺忘,然後被憶起,然後再被遺忘。

很久很久以前,有名男子突然出現在一座村莊,鄭重其事的向村民宣布,他將以每隻10元的價錢購買猴子。村民放眼望去,到處都是猴子,於是他們步入森林中,開始抓猴子。

該名陌生男子花了每隻10元的代價,買了數以千計的猴子,猴子數量開始減少,村民們覺得付出和收穫不成正比,於是不再有動力抓猴子了。

這名男子隨後宣布,每隻猴子的價格調高為20美元。這又讓村民們重新開始熱衷抓猴子。但是好景不常,猴子的數量大為減少,要抓一隻猴子難度越來越高,因此人們開始回到自己的農場,淡忘了抓猴子這件事。

隨後價格增加到每隻25美元,但是此時猴子的供應變得更稀少,要見到一隻猴子比登天還難,更別談抓猴子了。

該名男子隨即宣布,現在每隻猴子他出價50美元!然而從這時候他要進城裡辦些事,他的助手將代表他繼續收購猴子。

這位男子離開後,助理告訴村民:「看看我老闆買來放在大籠子裡的這些猴子,我每隻用35美元賣給你們,等我老闆從城裡回來,你們可以將它們每隻50美元賣給他。」

村民東湊西湊所有的積蓄,買下了全部的猴子。 從此,他們再也沒有見到這個老闆和他的助理。 村子裡又再次變成到處都是猴子的地方。

現在你應該充分了解︰股票市場是如何運作的了。

故事的教訓就是︰股票就像猴子,金融風暴之後一張都沒減少,但是大家的錢變少了。

另一個教訓就是:股票就像猴子,在別人的手中或是籠子裡,總是感覺比較值錢。

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.

The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at $20.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.

The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50!

However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.”

The villagers rounded up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.Then they never saw the man nor his assistant ever again, only monkeys everywhere!Now you have a better understanding of how the stock mark

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